High hopes for Gilbert

You may have read in our "Real Estate News" section there are high hopes for Gilbert to finish ahead of the curve at the bottom of the market.

The research indicates inventory has hit an almost two year low, homes under contract are significantly up from a year ago, foreclosures and REO's are helping to keep prices down, creating demand and closed sales are up 9% for 2008. If this trend continues into the typical spring buying pattern, 2009 will be a good year for Gilbert.

One of these factors research cannot control is the foreclosure rate and the number of REO's that hit the market. For clarification readers should know what the difference between a foreclosure and an REO is. When a mortgage goes into default, the bank will notify the resident they have a 90 day window in which to reach a settlement with the bank before the home is offered at auction. This action is known as a Notice of Trustee Sale. Many times these homes will go to auction, but the price will be to high for anyone to bid, at which point the bank is obligated to take the property back, and thus it becomes "Real Estate Owned" (REO) by the bank. REO's will be a major player in 2009, with conservative estimates predicting them to be approximately 30% of the market.

Another big player will continue to be short sales, which are homes for sale below market and below what's owed on them. These are not necessarily in foreclosure, but the residents are asking the banks to take a lesser price sooner rather than later. These transactions take a lot of time and patience because the bank has yet to determine what price they will accept on these properties as opposed to REO's. REO's have already been reviewed by the banks and put back on the market for below what was typically owed on the property. It's predicted that Short sales could make up another 30% of the market for 2009.

If Gilbert can lead the valley out of the downturn, home values should stay relatively stable and increase faster than other parts of the valley. For more on what the future may hold for Gilbert, see our video interview with Joe Johnston on the main page of the website.

Kurt Sabel

The End is Near

No, I'm not predicting the apocalypse, but the demise of the current real estate downturn. Don't ask me to predict bottom, however, because no one can do that, just look at all the experts who predicted the "boom" of 2004/05. The point is, we are close, and when some "expert" finally tells us the bottom has hit, it will be too late. Bottom will have already hit when they make their call and the herd mentality will kick in. The herd will then dictate the market and prices with their buying activity. The question: Is it better to be a member of the herd or a leader of the pack?

-Kurt Sabel

Where is the Real Bottom?

We have an excellent local research and analysis resource at the W.P. Carey School @ Arizona State University. This article on The Drop is Phoenix Real Estate is a realistic analysis based on comparing what is happening now with what happened during the last downturn. One interesting point is that the bottom can be predicted based on the "zeroing out" of the RATE of decline. We are now at that point. The lesson? Great Time to Buy during 2009.

- John Hancock

Where was this idea a year ago?

A plan under review by the Treasury department could help push buyers off the fence and reduce inventory in the Phoenix market by promoting 4.5% fixed rates. This rate would only apply to purchases and could not be used to refinance.

The plan would allow the government to buy the securities backing these newly issued loans, but in order to sell them to the government, the banks would have to offer the 4.5% fixed rate.

As reported in the Republic this morning, this is just one of several plans that would help stimulate sales in a struggling market and reduce the flow of foreclosures.

To read the complete story click here.

Kurt Sabel

Gloom and Doom? I think not!

Will wonders never cease? The Arizona Republic actually printed a piece citing positive factors at work in the Phoenix market that trend toward recovery! If we can get the media on our side in this battle, we could take this thing all the way to the White House.

The gist of the story is that Phoenix has passed 6 of 7 benchmarks set to gauge a recovering market. The test was created by a national real estate analyst, Tim Sullivan of The Sullivan Group. The criteria he employed were: inventory below a seven month supply, a rise in residential resales, a drop in new home permits, increase in mortgage applications, 30-year mortgage rates at 6% or less, an improvement in affordability and at least one major home builder falling off the radar. The only one we didn't pass was inventory supply. Depending on your source, we are somewhere between a 9-12 month supply, and dropping.

Based on this information, you'd think there is light at the end of the tunnel, right? Unfortunately,this is where the Republic goes off track and preaches the gloom and doom we've all become accustomed to. They state that recovery cannot occur "until the credit markets stabilize and the recession ends." This only continues to discourage people from the market.

The reality is that banks are lending to qualified buyers right now. Those buyers are making great deals on price and rate and not only contributing to the housing recovery, but the ultimate recovery of the credit markets and the economy as a whole.

Click here to read the entire article

Kurt Sabel

Interview with Joe Johnston @ Liberty Market

As part of our normal routine we interviewed Joe Johnston at Liberty Market in Gilbert, Arizona. One of the things I (John Hancock) took away from the conversation was Joe's philosophy of business whether times are good or bad. 1) Have a passion for the food; and 2) Serve from a servants heart. Click Here to see the entire video interview.

- John Hancock